Why the Media can’t admit the obvious about Bama’s chances to repeat
Before the final whistle of Georgia’s win over Michigan in Friday’s late semifinal, the narrative was already being shaped. Talking heads from all corners couldn’t wait to tell us that Georgia is back, and they will dispatch the Tide on the way to their first National Championship since 1980.
To us Bama fans, it sounds like the same song, second verse. When will the pundits ever learn? Sure, the Tide have some challenges with the loss of John Metchie and a banged-up secondary, but aside from Clemson in 2019, when has Coach Saban brought an unprepared team to the championship game? Honestly, the O-line has finally gelled, and they dominated Cincinnati. Bryce and the passing game sputtered a little, but that had more to do with a combination of facing the best secondary (by far) that Bama saw all season and the lack of a need to establish the pass. From the opening drive, the Tide offense didn’t have to pass so they didn’t.
What makes anyone think that the things that plagued Georgia in last month’s SEC Championship game will suddenly disappear? The Tide matches up well with Georgia, and that hasn’t changed. Sure, Georgia will come in motivated, and it’s always hard to beat an opponent twice in one year, but it’s not impossible. NFL teams do it every season, and I’ll take Saban and Company to have a scheme to keep Georgia guessing. Adrenaline will only take Georgia so far, and we’ve seen how Kirby Smart overthinks against Saban and this Alabama staff.
Having George Pickens back will present a challenge for the Tide secondary, but that’s assuming Stetson Bennett has time to throw. The Tide front 7 are a problem for Georgia, and no one knows that better than Stetson Bennett. I predict that Bennett will become familiar with the Lucas Oil Stadium roof courtesy of Will Anderson and Dallas Turner. Make no mistake, Georgia will score on the Bama D, but Bama will light up the scoreboard on the Dawgs. Contrary to what that talking heads will say all week, the Georgia D isn’t going to magically become an impenetrable force. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bill O’Brien’s run-heavy play calling in the semis wasn’t at least in part to not show his cards with Ja’Corey Brooks and Agiye Hall.
Don’t buy the hype. Take Bama to cover big, and take the over. Bama wins #19, 38-24 and teaches the Dawgs to behave again.
Roll Tide!
I’d love to hear what you think. Leave your comments here or hit me up on Twitter.
Series: 5 Big Changes Coming to College Football in the Next Decade (and How They Will Impact the Crimson Tide) - Reforming the Transfer Portal
Perhaps nothing in recent years changed the complexion of FBS football more than the transfer portal. The advent of the portal shifted the balance of power into the hands of athletes in significant ways.
It can be argued that the portal is a net positive in FBS football. Freshmen get earlier playing time to keep them happy. Coaches are pushed to balance playing time with the future transfer potential of players as a factor. No longer are big time programs able to stash talent to pad their competitive advantage. I believe the quality of the on-field product is better as a result of the portal.
In years past, players like Jalen Hurts would not have seen meaningful reps (much less a starting role) on a Nick Saban coached team. We got Jalenad a freshman starter, at least in part I believe, because the transfer portal demanded adaptation.
Landon Dickerson is a rare example of Alabama benefitting from more liberal transfer rules. One of the most popular Tide players of all time, Dickerson was a result of the transfer portal. His energy and toughness were pivotal on the road to 18 this year. Dickerson left Florida State for a fresh start after 2 injury-plagued seasons. At Alabama (perhaps because of the sports medicine and training staffs he joined in the transfer), he stayed healthy enough to become a consensus All-American and Remington Trophy winner.
On the other hand, few stories exist of players transferring from Alabama to greater success elsewhere. Alvin Kamara is perhaps the best example, but his real breakout came after his time at Tennessee. Looking through the rest of the Saban years at Alabama, it is hard to argue that the transfer portal has hurt the Tide on the field.
It is obvious that Coach Saban does not like the current iteration of the transfer portal. A year ago, he was quoted as saying:
I don't know how you manage a roster when this goes into effect,” Saban said. “I can't manage our roster now. Last year, we had eight seniors on our team. We had seven guys go out for the draft and three graduate transfers or guys that ended up transferring. So instead of having 18 seniors, you've got eight. You really have a three-year program at a place like this. I'm not necessarily saying it's going to hurt our program because we'll do a hell of a job recruiting players leaving other places to come here. But is that good for college football?
Despite his comments, the evidence indicates that Coach Saban will continue to negotiate current transfer rules with great success. He is adaptable, and he runs an adaptable program. Conquering the transfer portal is unlikely to befuddle Coach Saban.
Each off season, pundits debate the transfer portal. Second tier programs lament the investment they lose when players move on through the portal. No team is better positioned than the Tide to absorb losses of talent. Will those losses catch up to Alabama occasional? Surely. Will they cripple Alabama? Not regularly.
Transfer rules make for great offseason conversation, but they are not a huge concern for the Tide. Do you agree or disagree? Share you thoughts here and let’s talk!
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Series: 5 Big Changes Coming to College Football in the Next Decade (and How They Will Impact the Crimson Tide) - Paying College Athletes
Welcome to the third installment of our series on changes coming to college football.
Today, we will consider how coming changes in name, image, and likeness (NIL) rules will change the NCAA Division 1 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).
When it comes to college athletics, I am a purist at heart. Take uniforms. Give me Bama’s classic simplicity or the timeless panache of Penn State. Or announcers. Keith Jackson is the GOAT (if you are too young to know who he is, YouTube him. You’ll agree).
While my default is to slant to time-honored traditions, amateurism in college football is going to have to change. The world has evolved, and big-time college football is way behind the curve.
Amateur sports made the shift decades ago. Olympic athletes once received no money from endorsements and no salary for participation. Soviet dominance in many sports from “military service” afforded professional training schedules and access to professional quality training support. The answer to competitive balance was simple, bring money out of the shadows and into the light.
While the answer was shocking at the time, it was effective. By allowing amateur athletes to profit from their NIL, Olympic sports flourished. Year-round training and competitive international federations grew sports like biathlon and bobsledding into major economic endeavors. Already established sports like Track and Field and Figure Skating have grown even stronger. The result is a huge net positive for athletes, fans, and sports federations.
College football can no longer delay paying athletes. Not addressing the issue head-on will crush FBS football.
Like it or not, FBS Football is a minor league for the NFL. Amateurism is already an illusion. The education afforded to players is a valuable asset for players. The value pales in comparison with the economic benefit for schools.
Like most athletes in minor league sports, only a few FBS football players will ascend to the pinnacle of their sport. The majority play until their eligibility is exhausted and move on to careers. Often, status as a college football player is extremely useful in bridging to future employment. The same can be said for many forward-thinking minor league athletes who use the opportunity of their public profile to prepare for life after sports. The parallels are many.
The principal difference is the money generated by big-time college football dwarfs virtually any minor league in the world. Currently, schools benefit disproportionately from the situation. Revenue from football is in part used to fund non-revenue sports.
A solution is complex, but the current situation is unsustainable. With the sizable money in play, it is only a matter of time until an industry disrupter with a solid plan changes the status quo. Sooner or later, a minor league competitor to the FBS will emerge. Education will not be part of their compensation package. but, they will offer freedom to athletes to profit from their names and likenesses.
The future is a question of economics not of morals or tradition.
The courts set the scene for change in O'Bannon vs. NCAA. To delay response is to fall further behind the inevitable. This week, Tulane University became the 3rd FBS institution to forego participation in EA Sports upcoming College Football game to wait for clear rules dealing with athletes’ NIL.
Public indications are that the NCAA is whistling in the dark hoping the problem will evaporate. It will not. Congress will likely step in this summer to bring clarity and force change.
At this point, Alabama has to be the Saturday night leader in the clubhouse in this tilt. Who has more opportunity to gain in this situation? Alabama is a school that is at the top of the revenue pile with the renegotiation of an apparel deal on the horizon. Yet, Alabama has everything to lose if it is not thinking beyond the NCAA’s current track.
Greg Byrne’s leadership is exemplary. His steering of an established behemoth to even greater dominance is impressive. It remains to be seen how he will negotiate the uncharted waters of NIL and athlete compensation.
Alabama has an opportunity to be part of the disruption. Coach Saban has embraced disruptive changes on the field to remain on top. Will Alabama do the same off the field?
What do you think are the most important things for Greg Byrne to do to keep Alabama Athletics (especially Alabama Football) at the top in a season of inevitable change. Share your comments and ideas below. And, thanks in advance for sharing this post with your friends to bring them into the conversation.
Roll Tide!
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Series: 5 Big Changes Coming to College Football in the Next Decade (and How They Will Impact the Crimson Tide) - Dissolution of the FBS
Welcome to the second installment of the series on changes coming to college football.
Today, we will consider how conference realignment may affect the NCAA Division 1 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).
Currently, 139 schools make up the FBS. They are quite disparate. While all schools at this level all have 85 scholarships, the playing field is far from level. The inequality is best seen in differences like home fields. Stadiums across the FBS range in capacity from 22,000 to 115,000 fans. As stark are the differences in fan support, recruiting prestige, and financial resources.
A pattern has developed. Stronger FBS programs balance their schedule by combining a few low-level programs (or FCS programs) into their schedule. Scheduling these "cupcakes" has become part of the plan to ensure a successful season.
College athletic directors balance tough conference games with a few tune-up games. In the minds of many, everyone wins. Strong teams get a no-pressure game to get ready for others and to play backups. Weak teams get exposure for recruiting and money for their athletic departments.
Strength of schedule is part of the discussion around the College Football Playoffs. Yet, it never seems that weak non-conference opponents ever hurt a contender. The "everyone is doing it" mentality rules the day.
The practice will continue until the Power 5 conferences are forced to change. What could force their hands? Economic pressure is the most likely change agent. As the value of television rights for college football escalate, broadcast networks cannot afford bad games. They must provide large, engaged audiences to justify advertising rates.
The answer lies in a solution offered by Nick Saban. Divide the FBS into tiers. Group the strongest 65 teams into a single division. Mandate teams in this division play all 11 of their games within the division.
I would add one element to Coach Saban's plan. Institute soccer-style relegation for the bottom 5 teams in the upper-division. Relegation would keep bottom dwellers engaged. Can you imagine the intensity of the competition? How about the interest in both the teams vying for the playoffs and those trying to avoid relegation. The drama could be amazing.
My money would be on Saban and the Tide in this format. With a more level playing field, coaching would take on an even greater significance. Coach Saban's ability to lead in-game adjustments would be accentuated the way it is in the current playoffs. Recruiting would be more valuable as well. Greater depth is more important when there are no throwaway games. Nick Saban's process is tailor-made for producing in intense environments like this.
A realignment of the FBS is inevitable. What do you think? What changes do you believe will occur? Share your comments here on Twitter. Follow Alongside the Tide for the rest of this series.
Series: 5 Big Changes Coming to College Football in the Next Decade (and How They Will Impact the Crimson Tide) - Broadcast Networks
Today begins a 5 part series projecting changes coming to big-time college football. We will explore the mega-trends sure to change the landscape of college football. And will consider implications for the Tide. So, without further ado, let's move to the first topic, television sports.
We've come off of the most unusual college football season in history. The adaptations necessary to have a 2020 season at all were epic. One might think that COVID-19 isolation provided the recipe for unprecedented viewership. Unfortunately, reality turned out to be more complex. Through October, viewership was off more than 30 percent over 2019. The rest of the season didn't buck that trend. Presented with an opportunity to captivate, college football responded with tepid viewership numbers. This is indicative of a storm to come.
I am a traditionalist, but even a purist like me has to realize change is on the horizon. College football is at a watershed. Things cannot remain status quo. The sport has to evolve to respond to significant challenges in the next decade. If not, college football will suffer under the weight of crushing change. Here are 5 major issues that I see reshaping the sport in the next few years.
Hard times are on the way for television sports.
Over the last year, we have seen COVID-19 speed up the economic fallout for sports media. ESPN was particularly hard hit. In December 2020, ESPN laid off around 500 employees. At the time, ESPN blamed the cuts on COVID-19 production changes. Remote production provided a reason to reduce personnel expenses. Layoffs reduce the pressure but do not solve the crisis. The foundational economic model of cable sports networks is broken. Cord-cutting and a la carte streaming options changed the game. Television sports networks have not adapted.
ESPN receives the lion's share of the revenue from bundled cable services. With the promise of that revenue, ESPN bid up the broadcast rights for all sports. College football benefitted from this escalation. The recent $3 billion agreement between ESPN and the SEC is the ultimate example. The SEC received an almost 500 percent increase when the deal begins in 2024.
ESPN created an unsustainable escalation of rights fees for all major sports. The market is correcting. Cable bundles are going away. ESPN is not promised enough future revenue to sustain the obligations. So far, the network made it work by cutting expenses, but the bubble will burst. The correction will come in the next decade, and college football will feel the pinch.
Alabama is particularly vulnerable to this market correction. Despite having a large donor base, the Tide have a complicated revenue picture. Bama's deal with Nike extends through 2025 and is among the biggest bargains on Nike's books. The $63 million deal pales in comparison to those of Texas and Ohio State. Both reportedly check-in at over $250 million for 10 years.
Alabama needs the TV deal and a future apparel deal to keep up with other programs, but there is a wrinkle. Other schools may be the ones "over their skis." Timing may be on the side of the Tide. Think about it this way. ESPN outkicked their coverage on many fronts in lucrative rights deals. Subscriber revenue is down and only promises to contract further. COVID-19 accelerated the trend, and there is little on the horizon to show a rebound. ESPN is in trouble, and so are those schools that are spending based upon more lucrative rights deals. Alabama hasn't yet begun spending on athletics from increased TV or apparel revenue. Greg Byrne will earn his keep in threading this needle. In fact, economics could give the Tide an even greater advantage as all this sorts out. Only time will tell.
What do you think about the future of college football and the Crimson Tide? How do you see the role of television revenue in what is to come? I want to hear what you think. You can join the discussion here or on Twitter. Stay tuned to the rest of this series by following Alongside the Tide.
Why the Next 10 Years of Alabama Football Will Smash the Last 14
Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide are coming off of the best season in program history. Coach Saban won the Bear Bryant Coach of the Year. Tide players captured almost every individual and squad award. Together, they produced an undefeated season and National Championship. With this season, Coach Saban cemented his hold on the title of the Greatest College Football Coach of All-Time.
Saban himself says this season was special. Coach Saban expressed deep appreciation to be able to compete with his team in light of COVID-19. The Crimson Tide Nation is feeling great about the future. In light of a mid-season taste of life after football, Coach Saban says he's not ready for retirement.
Even so, it's hard to look a decade into the future and imagine Coach Saban still at the helm of the Crimson Tide. Yet, I am confident that Alabama's place at the top of College Football. This dynasty will last well past Saban's eventual retirement. Why? Simple human development.
My confidence comes from understanding how people grow and develop. Erik Erikson defined the way we look at human development. In fact, we all use concepts that come from him all the time. Ideas like "identity crisis" and "midlife crisis" are Erikson's.
The theory is pretty simple. Every life stage centers on a turning point. A person must resolve each turning point to progress well to the next stage of life. Not resolving the key life stage leads to unhappiness and a lack of satisfaction.
If you are still with me at this point, you may be dismissive, but think about this. The Process proceeds from applying psychological theory to football. Saban's co-creator Dr. Lonnie Rosen is a noted psychiatrist. Saban's hallmark process is a result of a deep dive into understanding and harnessing human development. He uses individual motivation to lead each player toward both team goals and personal accomplishment.
I'm crazy enough to believe that Coach Saban isn't only the purveyor of The Process. He is its greatest example. That is why he rooted himself at Alabama and why the future even beyond his days on the sideline is bright. Let me explain.
Getting back to Erikson. He identified middle adulthood as a choice between "generativity" and "stagnation." In layman's terms, the main task of middle adults is to settle into life and career and to become productive. Generative individuals are those whose efforts lead to accomplishment personally and professionally. This means that they find satisfaction in things like parenting and career progress. We all can agree that Coach Saban is rounding the corner of checking those boxes and checking them in a way never seen in collegiate sports. So, what is next?
Erikson says the last developmental stage is one of "integrity vs. despair." The main task of this stage is for a generative adult to finish well. Life focus shifts from building a life to leaving a legacy. We are seeing this metamorphosis in Coach Saban's life in real-time. You can see it in his pride as a grandfather. It is being shown in his relentless focus on producing players and coaches for the rest of their lives. Coach still wants to win championships (and that will not change until the day he retires). But, winning on the field is one of two equal goals. He's also determined to see the people he leads win life.
You can see it in his approach to all the coaches who come in, find success, and move on to the next challenge. He isn't bitter. He isn't flustered. Why? Because advancement isn't only a personal goal for the coaches in his program. Greater success is the goal that he has for them too.
It's the same with players. When do you see Coach irritated by early departures? When he believes they haven't maximized their potential at the college level. He isn't mad they are leaving. His disappointment is that The Process isn't complete. In his estimation, those players are leaving money and success on the table at the next level. Their success is his success too.
So, why am I so confident that the next decade will be epic for Alabama Football? I am convinced that Coach Saban will bring his successor when the time is right, and he will protect his legacy. He will leave well, and he will leave something that will build on the foundation he leaves. Critics may sneer based upon some of his past career moves. Legacy may not have been the greatest consideration in his other stops along the way. At this stage of life, I would bet the farm on his legacy-defining his future actions.
Only time will tell. Until then, how do you see the next decade playing out for Alabama Football and for Coach Saban? Leave a comment below or respond on Twitter. I would love to hear your thoughts.
Time For Oats To Think About March Madness
After watching the Tide's outing with Missouri today, I see only one option. Rest Herb Jones and start today playing for an NCAA Tournament run.
Let's face it. With the good we've seen in this squad, this team has some serious limitations. They don't have a legitimate center. Injuries to Bruner, Reese, and Rojas have limited the physicality of the front line. Add Herb Jones' back, and you have a recipe for disaster.
It's time for Coach Oats to sacrifice the present for the future. A tester with South Carolina is next. Bama then gets stretch with Georgia, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt (RPI 122, 138, & 217 ), there is a window to sit Jones and Reese. This gives them a chance to get right physically and still likely take 3 of 4.
I trust our Coach. He's put an exciting product on the floor with a team that has a chance to go deep in March if a few things break their way. This team needs to be able to dictate the pace of play to blunt their lack of size and physicality on the boards.
Today's postgame press conference indicates that Coach Oats sees this. I expect him to make adjustments to rest Jones and Reese over the next couple of weeks. As fans, let's be supportive and cut him some slack. Championships aren't won in February, but they can be lost. We need to support our team with that in mind.
What do you think Coach Oats should do? I'd love to hear your comments. Please leave your comments here or come engage with me on Twitter.
At Alabama, the Process Isn’t Just for Players
It seems like every year following the season, the story of Alabama Football is the roller coaster ride of coaching changes. As predictably the stifling August heat in Alabama, we find ourselves in the midst of the annual game of fruit basket turnover on the coaching staff.
This year, most of the turnover comes courtesy of Sark’s exit to Texas. It seems like a lot of the Bama Nation are none too happy with Sark for raiding the staff and taking several key members with him. Count me out for that party. I see things completely differently.
First, I’m not going to sweat until I see Coach Saban sweating. In the past 14 years, if we have learned nothing, surely we have learned that as long as Saban is at the helm, the ship will make it through. Sure, coaching changes can be said to have contributed to the “down” years (I can hardly type that without remembering that means 2 losses and not winning a national championship), but who else has ever experienced the unmitigated success that we are enjoying right now?
Moreover, Coach Saban is all about focusing an entire organization around a goal that they pursue in unison while creating value for themselves. That’s what the Process is all about, and why should we think that the process applies only to players? Year in and year out Coach Saban gathers the most impressive list of coaching talent to Alabama with most of them working intern-level jobs that provide the Tide with a substantial tactical edge.
How does he do it? It’s for certain that he’s not attracting them to what many have termed “coaching rehab” for the warm and fuzzy nurture that they will receive at his side. I believe he is attracting them for the same reason that 5-star prospects are flocking to Tuscaloosa. He will invest in them and make them better, and he will launch them on to something else with his blessing when they buy in and apply themselves.
Look no further than Charles Huff for an example. Charles Huff made a significant impact in tutoring Najee Harris to become an all-around back who will certainly succeed at the next level barring a major detour. Najee came back to have a chance to win a national championship, but he also came back to improve as a blocker and a pass-catcher. Those skills, developed under Charles Huff, will make him a great deal more money as a projected 1st round pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Charles Huff bought in and made a difference. In turn, the 37-year-old was the benefactor of Saban’s recommendation for the head coaching job at Marshall.
Coach Saban thrives on challenges. He can’t sit still or mark time. Just ask Miss Terry about his days at home during his COVID-19 quarantine if you doubt it. I believe that extends to the challenge of developing coaches as well.
What do you think? We would love to hear your opinion about the coaching changes at Alabama. Send your thoughts along and continue the conversation by commenting on this post, sending us a message, or connecting with us on the social media outlets below.
Easy on the Bryce Young Hype Train
Bryce Young came to Alabama as one of the most highly touted quarterback prospects every to set foot in Tuscaloosa. In limited work, he has shown flashes of brilliance amidst a few typical freshman moments. With Mac Jones on to the NFL, Bryce seems to be the next man up.
Since the season concluded, I’ve seen a lot of chatter on social media about “keeping the train rolling” and how Bryce is “destined to succeed.” Each time I see comments to that effect, I can help but think “easy does it.” I know Bryce Young is a special talent, but he’s also a true Sophomore with very little playing experience and none in meaningful moments.
He’s going to have an opportunity to compete to solidify the starting job, and almost everyone (including me) expects that he will win the job going away. My hesitation comes not in the form of a lack of confidence, but a realism grounded in the situation around him. He is a young guy who needs time to mature physically (which I am sure that Dr. Rhea & David Ballou are helping along quite nicely), and he is having to make an adjustment to a new system under Coach Bill O’ Brien. Add in significant turnover at OL, TE, RB, and WR, and he has a lot on his plate coming into this year.
The past several years have spoiled us into expecting continuity and continued success in spite of similar challenges. Let’s realize how rare the run that we have experienced is for an offense with so much turnover on and off the field. Perhaps, things will continue to roll without missing a beat. Perhaps the road will be a little bumpier. Either way, the future is bright. Let’s enjoy the ride and encourage the team.
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Bama is RBU and a whole lot more
Every year right around the LSU game, the same debate begins. Who is really DBU?
Despite the incessant woofing from the Bayou Bengals, the facts are evident. Crimson Tide Football is the dominant force in the NFL today. While the title of DBU is debatable, the dominance of the Crimson Tide in the NFL isn’t.
Consider:
At the beginning of the 2020 NFL season, 57 Bama alums were on NFL active rosters. Additionally, 7 more either opted out or began on an injury list. Ohio State was second with 50, and LSU was third with 41.
The Tide is unquestionably RBU. Three RBs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft since 2010 and a total of 10 drafted in all rounds in the past decade is enough to cement the title for the Tide. With Najee Harris on the horizon as another first rounder, no other school comes close.
With the 2021 NFL draft class including Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, Alabama is poised to give Clemson a run for the title of WRU.
According to Reid Foster of SI.com, The Tide check in as the only legitimate claimants to the titles of DLU & LBU with an analysis of draft results and on-field performance over the past several years.
With Patrick Surtain II projected to go in the 1st round, only LSU has an argument for taking the title of DBU in front of Alabama.
When you put it all together, Coach Saban’s record at Alabama can not be denied, and the streak of dominance on the field and in sending players to the NFL isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.
What are your favorite parts of the Saban dynasty? We would love to hear your thoughts. Submit comments here or find us on all of the social media outlets below.