Series: 5 Big Changes Coming to College Football in the Next Decade (and How They Will Impact the Crimson Tide) - Broadcast Networks

Today begins a 5 part series projecting changes coming to big-time college football. We will explore the mega-trends sure to change the landscape of college football. And will consider implications for the Tide. So, without further ado, let's move to the first topic, television sports.

We've come off of the most unusual college football season in history. The adaptations necessary to have a 2020 season at all were epic. One might think that COVID-19 isolation provided the recipe for unprecedented viewership. Unfortunately, reality turned out to be more complex. Through October, viewership was off more than 30 percent over 2019. The rest of the season didn't buck that trend. Presented with an opportunity to captivate, college football responded with tepid viewership numbers. This is indicative of a storm to come.
I am a traditionalist, but even a purist like me has to realize change is on the horizon. College football is at a watershed. Things cannot remain status quo. The sport has to evolve to respond to significant challenges in the next decade. If not, college football will suffer under the weight of crushing change. Here are 5 major issues that I see reshaping the sport in the next few years.

Hard times are on the way for television sports.

Over the last year, we have seen COVID-19 speed up the economic fallout for sports media. ESPN was particularly hard hit. In December 2020, ESPN laid off around 500 employees. At the time, ESPN blamed the cuts on COVID-19 production changes. Remote production provided a reason to reduce personnel expenses. Layoffs reduce the pressure but do not solve the crisis. The foundational economic model of cable sports networks is broken. Cord-cutting and a la carte streaming options changed the game. Television sports networks have not adapted.

ESPN receives the lion's share of the revenue from bundled cable services. With the promise of that revenue, ESPN bid up the broadcast rights for all sports. College football benefitted from this escalation. The recent $3 billion agreement between ESPN and the SEC is the ultimate example. The SEC received an almost 500 percent increase when the deal begins in 2024.

ESPN created an unsustainable escalation of rights fees for all major sports. The market is correcting. Cable bundles are going away. ESPN is not promised enough future revenue to sustain the obligations. So far, the network made it work by cutting expenses, but the bubble will burst. The correction will come in the next decade, and college football will feel the pinch.

Alabama is particularly vulnerable to this market correction. Despite having a large donor base, the Tide have a complicated revenue picture. Bama's deal with Nike extends through 2025 and is among the biggest bargains on Nike's books. The $63 million deal pales in comparison to those of Texas and Ohio State. Both reportedly check-in at over $250 million for 10 years.

Alabama needs the TV deal and a future apparel deal to keep up with other programs, but there is a wrinkle. Other schools may be the ones "over their skis." Timing may be on the side of the Tide. Think about it this way. ESPN outkicked their coverage on many fronts in lucrative rights deals. Subscriber revenue is down and only promises to contract further. COVID-19 accelerated the trend, and there is little on the horizon to show a rebound. ESPN is in trouble, and so are those schools that are spending based upon more lucrative rights deals. Alabama hasn't yet begun spending on athletics from increased TV or apparel revenue. Greg Byrne will earn his keep in threading this needle. In fact, economics could give the Tide an even greater advantage as all this sorts out. Only time will tell.

What do you think about the future of college football and the Crimson Tide? How do you see the role of television revenue in what is to come? I want to hear what you think. You can join the discussion here or on Twitter. Stay tuned to the rest of this series by following Alongside the Tide.