The Earthquake is Coming: Venture Capital and the Privatization of College Football
Over the past several days, we have seen the pace of the evolution in college football pick up significant momentum.
The question that is swirling is “why is the NCAA choosing to make an example of Tennessee by applying archaic booster rules to the current NIL environment?”
I believe it is because we are hearing the death rattle from the NCAA.
The NCAA is frightened and has overplayed its hand
The NCAA has had years to produce a workable solution to the current legal landscape of college athletics. Instead of proactively engaging member schools, athletes, state governments, and federal agencies, the NCAA has run and hid. Believing that the courts would halt their efforts, it has chosen paralysis and waited for others to define reality.
Now, facing imminent change, the NCAA is choosing to harass a member institution with the promise of taking on every almost single member institution for something that courts are sure to redefine completely. Nothing the NCAA proposes to do will stand because of the inconsistent application of a patchwork of inapplicable and outdated rules. What the regulators are attempting is way too little, way too late.
Why now?
The question is, why chose now to act. I believe it is because they know that the final act is underway.
Current events are unfolding in a way to reframe the entire situation so that the NCAA becomes completely irrelevant.
Murmurs abound
Over the past few weeks, the undercurrent of rumbles coming from SEC & B1G circles have begun to add up. On Friday, the league’s announced an exploration of a solution to the unregulated mess created by the NCAA’s ineptitude in the face of NIL and almost completely unregulated transfers.
Privately, the rumors go much deeper to point toward substantial movement toward an SEC/B1G football breakaway blessed by major television partners. This new quasi-professional league would include university-based teams that are majority owned by the universities, but are privately funded by capital investment by minority shareholders.
Players would be student-athlete/employees who are competitively compensated and are able to collectively bargain with the league for their wage parameters and working conditions.
The teams and the league they form will be for-profit private ventures that generate significant income for the schools and the athletes they employ.
In the end, I believe this is why schools like Florida State are exploring venture capital investments. Not primarily to buy their way out of their school’s Grant of Rights agreement with the ACC (which I believe will become both become increasingly irrelevant and significantly cheaper in the not so distant future as the SEC/B1G walk away from the NCAA). But instead to capitalize a new business for schools coming from the ACC/Big12 to the new league.
I believe it will soon become apparent that we are living at the historical intersection of both the privatization and the professionalization of the SEC/B1G. And, call me a lunatic, but I believe it will be a done deal by the middle of August with a launch for the 2025 football season.
A little housekeeping
The greatest casualty will be SEC/B1G Olympic sports that will cease to exist. Other lesser team sports like basketball, baseball, softball, and soccer will create their own league championships with television contract funded post-season tournaments as the NCAA championships die a rapid death.
Hang on. It’s about to be a wild ride
What do you think will happen and when? Let’s hear your thoughts with a comment below or at @DrRick_TWO.
Do you agree or disagree?
The End is Near: The NCAA, Tennessee, and the SEC/B1G Exploratory Committee
Pundits have been puzzled by why the NCAA leaked their inquiry into NIL violations by the Vols. Honestly, no one could figure why the NCAA would try to bust Tennessee for what everyone is doing and for what no rules exist to prohibit.
Now, the answer seems simple. The NCAA is on its deathbed. No longer possessing any role, the agency seemed to have been hoping to use the threat of messy sanctions and the specter of litigation to back the SEC and B1G down before they do the inevitable.
With yesterday’s announcement, the NCAA’s two premier conferences called the governing body’s bluff. Not even the fear of the complication of losing revenue generating postseason tournaments for sports like men’s and women’s basketball could stop things.
Big news dropped yesterday as the SEC & B1G announced an exploratory committee to investigate the changing landscape of college football, the role of the NCAA, and their future plans.
Make no mistake, this is the beginning of the end, and the end is coming fast. One sure sign is the NCAA’s plaintive wail of a volley fired toward Tennessee.
Why now
Pundits have been puzzled by why the NCAA leaked their inquiry into NIL violations by the Vols. Honestly, no one could figure why the NCAA would try to bust Tennessee for what everyone is doing and for what no rules exist to prohibit.
Now, the answer seems simple. The NCAA is on its deathbed. No longer possessing any role, the agency seemed to have been hoping to use the threat of messy sanctions and the specter of litigation to back the SEC and B1G down before they do the inevitable.
With yesterday’s announcement, the NCAA’s two premier conferences called the governing body’s bluff. Not even the fear of the complication of losing revenue generating postseason tournaments for sports like men’s and women’s basketball could stop things.
Succession
The SEC & B1G have set into motion a plan that will almost certainly end with their succession from NCAA and the formation of a collegiate super league with paid players representing their respective schools.
The hows & whens of this plan are yet to be determined, but credible sources have a summer deadline projected for completion of the plan.
Conclusion
In short, college football as we know it really is dead. All that is left to clarify its funeral arrangements and to give it the send off it deserves.
Stay tuned. More to come.
Keep watching here & pay attention to my dude @CoachSmook on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@CoachSmook for developing information…
FINAL COUNTDOWN: The Imperative Shift in College Athletics—Professionalization of the Big Ten and SEC
There's a quiet but significant effort by the Big Ten and SEC to develop a compensation model that could redefine their relationship with athletes. This involves collective bargaining, marking a significant shift from traditional collegiate sports models. This a radical shift that many CFB fans will likely hate, but the change seems inevitable in a world where the television rights for games alone are worth billions of dollars. Athletes have a legitimate legal argument as to their entitlement to participate in that revenue.
The landscape of college athletics is at a pivotal crossroads. The Big Ten and SEC are considering a radical move to professionalize, primarily driven by the need to resolve ongoing legal challenges. I ran across an X post from @Genetics56 that started me doing a little digging. Here’s what I’ve pieced together.
Behind Closed Doors
There's a quiet but significant effort by the Big Ten and SEC to develop a compensation model that could redefine their relationship with athletes. This involves collective bargaining, marking a significant shift from traditional collegiate sports models. This a radical shift that many CFB fans will likely hate, but the change seems inevitable in a world where the television rights for games alone are worth billions of dollars. Athletes have a legitimate legal argument as to their entitlement to participate in that revenue.
Legal Pressures
Recent legal developments, such as the House v. NCAA antitrust case, have put immense pressure on these conferences. With potential damages exceeding billions, the current model seems unsustainable. The Big 10 and SEC seem to be quietly constructing a preemptive plan that would help them avoid an adverse judgement which would sink college football at the FBS level.
The Inevitable Change
Ultimately, this movement isn't just about financial pressures. It's a response to a changing environment where traditional models no longer suffice. Leaders in academics and athletics recognize the need for a shift. The world that made NIL and the widening of the economic gap between the Big 10 and SEC and the rest of the FBS isn’t going to close. The gap is going to become a chasm, and the two leagues are apparently preparing to break away before the enevitable fallout begins.
Historical Context and Future Direction
This is hardly the first instance of a seismic shift like this in athletics. In fact, college athletics have always been evolving. There was a day when the forward pass was illegal. Today it is the center of most offensive philosophies. Once, schools could offer unlimited athletic scholarships. Today teams are limited to 85 scholarship players. The separation of FCS and FBS is a testament to the reality that levels and divisions come as a result of economic disparities. The Big Ten and SEC's move might be the next big step in this evolution.
I first heard this notion over a decade ago from Nick Saban in a Q & A after a speech he delivered. He believed that top level college football would be limited to 60 teams and would function much like the NFL. In this model, there would be no games outside of the 60 team league, and there would be a playoff system in place. We have already taken major steps in that direction. One of which is the defanging of the NCAA.
The NCAA's Diminishing Role
The NCAA is essentially impotent. Recent legal and operational failures have only accelerated this shift. At this point no one fears the roar of the toothless old lion. Think about Michigan’s bravado in the face of recent allegations of major violations. Michigan does not fear the NCAA at all when in past decades they would be quaking at the propspect of major sanctions. Proposals to unify Power 5 conferences under a common framework have fallen short, highlighting the need for a more radical approach.
Implications for Athletes and Schools
Professionalization carries risks and changes the dynamics between athletes and institutions. However, it seems a necessary step to navigate the legal landscape and redefine collegiate athletics. Without change, the likely path for the future is the creation of a “minor league” style system for post-high school athletes with a compensation range that far exceeds the pay found currently in NIL deals or leagues like the UFL (formerly the XFL and USFL).
Conclusion
The transition towards professionalization is not just about legalities or finances; it's a fundamental change in how collegiate sports operate. The Big Ten and SEC are at the forefront of this transformation, signaling a new era for college athletics. While this shift will bring challenges, it appears to be a necessary evolution in the face of a rapidly changing landscape.
Final Thoughts
The coming months are crucial, and we can expect significant developments in this arena. The transformation is underway, and it’s time to brace for a new chapter in college sports.