The Earthquake is Coming: Venture Capital and the Privatization of College Football
Over the past several days, we have seen the pace of the evolution in college football pick up significant momentum.
The question that is swirling is “why is the NCAA choosing to make an example of Tennessee by applying archaic booster rules to the current NIL environment?”
I believe it is because we are hearing the death rattle from the NCAA.
The NCAA is frightened and has overplayed its hand
The NCAA has had years to produce a workable solution to the current legal landscape of college athletics. Instead of proactively engaging member schools, athletes, state governments, and federal agencies, the NCAA has run and hid. Believing that the courts would halt their efforts, it has chosen paralysis and waited for others to define reality.
Now, facing imminent change, the NCAA is choosing to harass a member institution with the promise of taking on every almost single member institution for something that courts are sure to redefine completely. Nothing the NCAA proposes to do will stand because of the inconsistent application of a patchwork of inapplicable and outdated rules. What the regulators are attempting is way too little, way too late.
Why now?
The question is, why chose now to act. I believe it is because they know that the final act is underway.
Current events are unfolding in a way to reframe the entire situation so that the NCAA becomes completely irrelevant.
Murmurs abound
Over the past few weeks, the undercurrent of rumbles coming from SEC & B1G circles have begun to add up. On Friday, the league’s announced an exploration of a solution to the unregulated mess created by the NCAA’s ineptitude in the face of NIL and almost completely unregulated transfers.
Privately, the rumors go much deeper to point toward substantial movement toward an SEC/B1G football breakaway blessed by major television partners. This new quasi-professional league would include university-based teams that are majority owned by the universities, but are privately funded by capital investment by minority shareholders.
Players would be student-athlete/employees who are competitively compensated and are able to collectively bargain with the league for their wage parameters and working conditions.
The teams and the league they form will be for-profit private ventures that generate significant income for the schools and the athletes they employ.
In the end, I believe this is why schools like Florida State are exploring venture capital investments. Not primarily to buy their way out of their school’s Grant of Rights agreement with the ACC (which I believe will become both become increasingly irrelevant and significantly cheaper in the not so distant future as the SEC/B1G walk away from the NCAA). But instead to capitalize a new business for schools coming from the ACC/Big12 to the new league.
I believe it will soon become apparent that we are living at the historical intersection of both the privatization and the professionalization of the SEC/B1G. And, call me a lunatic, but I believe it will be a done deal by the middle of August with a launch for the 2025 football season.
A little housekeeping
The greatest casualty will be SEC/B1G Olympic sports that will cease to exist. Other lesser team sports like basketball, baseball, softball, and soccer will create their own league championships with television contract funded post-season tournaments as the NCAA championships die a rapid death.
Hang on. It’s about to be a wild ride
What do you think will happen and when? Let’s hear your thoughts with a comment below or at @DrRick_TWO.
Do you agree or disagree?
Will Jalen Milroe Declare for the 2024 Draft?
Hear me out. Back in September, this sounded completely absurd, but today. Today it may not be so far fetched.
Milroe’s Improvement
It can’t be denied that Jalen Milroe is a vastly improved QB after game 12. Nick Saban describes him as a “point guard” who has learned he doesn’t have to dribble the ball all over the court. Instead, Milroe is becoming at home with the balance of distributing the ball and taking the play into his own hands with his instincts and incredible physical talent. Though not perfect, his decision making in closing pocket is light years from where it was against Texas.
Why Would He Go?
Two words: “Anthony Richardson.” Milroe is every bit the athlete Richardson is and is perhaps even now ahead of where He was as a collegiate signal caller before entering the draft. Although raw, Richardson became the #4 draft pick and earned himself an almost $34M contract from the Indianapolis Colts.
It would seem that similar is plausible for Milroe in such a QB talent starved NFL. If Milroe grades out as a high first round pick, he has to go. No NIL deal package can possible offset the riches of the NFL.
Why Would He Stay?
Primarily because he is too raw and coming out now would cost him huge future earnings. While we’d love to believe that love for the Crimson Tide or loyalty to us fans would factor it, it can’t. NIL can make the decision to stay easier but it can never remove the pressure to go to the NFL when top 10 draft pick money is in play.
Where Does He Stand Today?
As of right now, no significant draft analysts have Milroe on their draft boards, but with a Heisman-worthy performance in the SEC Championship Game tomorrow, I would expect that to change. Also having some bearing on it will be movement in and around Bama’s QB room as the transfer portal heats up. For instance, if Bama’s QB room shuffles to become thinner than expected or perhaps Arch Manning reemerges as a Bama option as a result of Quinn Ewers staying at Texas. That could mean pressure on Alabama to move on from Milroe (although I highly doubt it. Coach Saban isn’t given to those types of decisions.)
Conclusion
In the end, Jalen Milroe is most likely the game one starter in Tuscaloosa in 2024, but we’ve all learned never to say never.
What do you think? Please comment here or on X.
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Thanks & Roll Tide
THE TIDAL WAVE: Arkansas Edition
My observations:
1. The Jekyll & Hyde performance from one half to another was quite the anomaly. The Tide fell from #3 to #11 in Second Half ranking according to TeamRankings.com
2. Milroe continued to struggle with pocket presence leading to 5 sacks. Bama is #129 in sacks allowed in all of FBS & 6th from last in the last 3 games. That’s not all on the OL w/ Milroe moving into pressure consistently.
3. The defense continues to be incredible. They are #15 in total defense w/ Dallas Turner avg 1 sack per game.
4. Things were much better on the penalty front. Only 5 flags for 45 yds w/ 1 pre-snap infraction. But, Jaylen Key’s facemask penalty seemed to give the Hogs life.
5. The run game showed flashes of brilliance. Why Rees doesn’t rely on the run more is a mystery.
6. Speaking of mysteries, why Rees remains coaching from the box is a head scratcher. Milroe needs the support from the sideline to call checks. Major frustration.
7. Great to see James Burnip back & playing well. He gave us a scare last week, but all seems well. He is invaluable b/c of his ability to flip field position.
8. Will Reichard cemented his legacy among Bama & SEC greats by becoming all-time SEC scoring leader. Thanks @WillReichard!
9. LT is a pain point in the OL. Why Rees isn’t helping more with a back or TE is baffling?
10. Coach Saban called the team out for a lack of killer instinct. Hopefully #TennesseeHateWeek will bring out the desire to beat the opponent badly.